This Academy report focusses on the ability of the power system to provide a reliable electricity supply and achieve the 70% renewables target (annual production basis) in 2030. It seeks to identify risks and recommend prudent actions on the part of policymakers. It takes an All-Island view of the future.

  In order to maintain normal reliability standards while replacing coal, oil and peat generation, Ireland will require significant gas fired generation capacity for the next two decades. The gas turbine generation capacity required in 2030 is likely to increase from today, but annual gas consumption will probably reduce as generating units will operate with lower load factors, but peak gas demand, for power generation will be significantly higher than today. Power system reliability is therefore critically dependent on secure primary energy supplies (Natural Gas) to the Island of Ireland.   Power system reliability becomes an Energy Security issue. A failure of the power system would have a catastrophic effect on normal economic life.   Ireland has two sources of gas supply at present– Corrib and pipeline imports via Great Britain (GB). Gas production from Corrib has reduced by almost 50% in the past four years and this steady decline will continue in the next few years. By 2025, Corrib will supply only 15% of Ireland’s annual gas demand and less than 10% of maximum daily supply.   By 2030, the island of Ireland will be almost totally dependent on Great Britain (GB) for its gas supply. GB in turn will import up to 75% of its gas due to declining North Sea production.   In the Academy’s view, developing a liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal in Ireland is highly advisable in order to ensure secure and diverse gas supplies. This issue has already been covered in the Academy’s report in 2018 on Irish Gas Supply Security. It may be noted that Ireland is one of the very few maritime countries in Europe which does not have an LNG import facility.This supply risk is further compounded by the current lack of any gas storage capacity. These issues must be urgently addressed by policymakers.   Alternatives to gas fired generation have been proposed. The Academy’s preliminary views on these technologies are presented in this report and its considered conclusion is that none of these options can be implemented on a scale that would significantly reduce Ireland’s gas fired generation capacity by 2030.   If the risks to the national electricity system are to be effectively managed, there are no viable alternatives to gas fired power generation in 2030. Gas turbine generation and a secure gas supply will be critically important for Ireland to maintain power system reliability standards in 2030 and probably for a further decade beyond that date.   The cost of Ireland’s “Energy transition” has received little attention so far. It should not be underestimated. The MaREI report (referenced later) very usefully provides a preliminary estimate of €32 Billion for the investment required up to 2030 in the power system alone, if the Government target is to be achieved while meeting reliability standards.   A further similar sum (€31 Billion) is estimated by MaREI to be required for the roll out of Electric Vehicle (EV) charging points, the introduction of heat pumps on a wide scale for space heating, and other consumer side investments; bringing the cost of the energy transition to at least €63 Billion by 2030.   To view report click here Pat Kenny Show Newstalk 31st March 2021 interview